How our scenarios should be used
The stresses applied under the scenarios are not a forecast of macroeconomic and financial conditions in the UK, or a set of events that are expected, or likely, to materialise. Rather, as per previous scenarios, they are coherent ‘tail risk’ scenarios designed to be severe and broad enough to assess the resilience of UK banks to a range of adverse shocks.
The results of stress tests are an important consideration for the PRA, used to inform the setting of banks’ and building societies regulatory capital buffers.
Firms should consider the stress test scenarios in the context of their business and its own specific risk drivers. Our scenarios should be used as a starting point for firms to build and accurately calibrate their own scenarios under Pillar 2. We recognise that any single scenario, designed for firms with very different business models and risks, has its limits. We expect firms to choose scenarios that provide a strong challenge for their business.
By publishing two differing scenarios, our aim is to encourage firms to consider the type, characteristics and severity of stress that their business model is vulnerable to, when designing their own stress testing scenario (or scenarios). Firms are ultimately responsible for developing their own scenarios to test their firm’s resilience.
Guidance on the role of stress testing within the framework for setting banks’ and building societies’ capital requirements can be found in SS31/15 – The Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP).
From 1 January 2027, guidance for firms who have opted into the SDDT capital regime on the role of stress testing within the framework for setting banks’ and building societies’ capital requirements can be found in SS4/25 - The Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) for Small Domestic Deposit Takers (SDDTs).